Duck Snorts

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Hello there. My name is David Smithson Michaels, and welcome to DUCK SNORTS. During the season, I’ll go through all the news happening in baseball, pick out the best stories for you, and offer you my expert analysis and opinions on what these stories mean to you, the intelligent fans of baseball. Here are the DUCK SNORTS for Friday, February 15, 2008.

C.C. SABATHIA CALLS OFF CONTRACT NEGOTIATIONS, STARTS PREPARING FOR REGULAR SEASON: Cleveland Indians starting pitcher C.C. Sabathia has tabled contract talks in anticipation for the upcoming 2008 Major League Baseball season. I think this is bad news for the Indians, since C.C. Sabathia has been one of the better Indians pitchers for a long time. If a contract isn’t signed, then Sabathia becomes a free agent, meaning he can sign with any team that chooses to offer him a contract. That could come back to hurt the Indians, especially if Sabathia ends up on a team that the Indians have to play against.

On the other hand, it’s good that Sabathia wants to focus on the season instead of talking about however many millions of dollars he wants. As good as Sabathia was in the regular season last year, he was awful in the post-season, especially against the World Series Champion Red Sox. If the Indians want to go somewhere in the playoffs this year, they need Sabathia to show that he’s not a playoff choke artist like Alex Rodriguez.

RYAN DEMPSTER SAYS CUBS WILL WIN THE WORLD SERIES – IS HE RIGHT?: Chicago Cubs pitcher Ryan Dempster was quoted as saying that he thinks his team has a good shot to win the World Series in 2008. It’s necessary for players to have this sort of optimism going into every season. After all, doesn’t every baseball player want to win the World Series? I’m not so sure Depmster should be so bold as to predict a Cubs championship, however. The Cubs are an unlucky franchise with a long history of failing to even make it to the World Series, let alone win it. Some experts claim that the club could be “cursed”, which would explain why the Steve Bartman game of 2003 happened. it’s been 99 years since the Cubs last won a World Series, and people like Dempster are hoping this year’s the year. This is one of many stories that’s worth following this baseball season.

PS: Watch out, Ryan — someone on the reigning World Champions disagrees with you!

ANDY PETTITTE TOLD THE TRUTH, THEN LIED, THEN TOLD THE TRUTH AGAIN: Yankee great Andy Pettitte has been under lots of scrutiny of late, mostly due to his association with notable PED user Roger Clemens. First, it was revealed in the Mitchell Report that he was among many users of PEDs within the major leagues. However, he then came clean about his usage, claiming he used drugs only twice, and it was only to help him recouperate from an injury. Then, in an affidavit made public during the congressional hearings involving Clemens and trainer Brian McNamee, it was revealed that Pettitte used PEDs two more times than he previously admitted. However, it turns out that Pettitte received the drugs (used only to rehab from injuries) from his ailing father, and kept this information secret as long as he could to avoid bringing his father into the media circus. During the hearings, Congressman Henry Waxman commended Pettitte for coming clean.

I agree with Congressman Waxman’s assessment. Throughout his career, Andy Pettitte has been a exemplary role model, a man of religion in addition to being one of the clutchest pitchers in Major League history. His actions in protecting his father just go to show how true this is. Who would want their father, who so selflessly gave to his son so he could pitch again, to go through the same media circus that should be reserved for despicable liars like Roger Clemens? People trying to compare Pettitte’s modified stories to the same backtracking Brian McNamee has employed throughout this ordeal need to get some perspective on life.

Meanwhile, supposed baseball great Roger Clemens is more than happy to use his wife as a human shield against the allegations he’s trying so desperately to avoid, doesn’t even know what a ‘vegan’ is, and would probably stick himself with the blood of aborted fetuses if it meant he could bilk another team out of $30 million while failing to pitch more than 15 games and causing them to lose in the postseason, just like he did for last year’s World Series favorite, the New York Yankees. In my mind, the difference between how these two athletes treat their families and their teams shows me who the real Hall of Famer is. Here’s hoping both Pettitte and Clemens get exactly what they deserve – a shrine in Cooperstown for the former, and a stocking full of coal for the latter.

David Smithson Michaels has bought four of the past six editions of Baseball Prospectus, and is almost finished reading one of them.

A Plea For Clemens-cy

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Today is a day where we in America celebrate and express our love for our loved ones, regardless of whether it’s through jewelry or chocolate or sacrificing two goats and a dog. And I would like to take this day to celebrate my love for my husband, World Series Champion and Cy Young Award Winner William Roger Clemens, a innocent man that has done nothing wrong that I know about.

It is a travesty, what has happened to our country over these past few days. That a awful lying man like Brian McNamee, a man that me and Roger allowed into our lives, could make up such half-truths about what my Roger did or did not do in regards to utilizing performance enhancing drugs in his capacity as a Major League Baseball player. And that another so-called friend, Andy Pettitte, could do the very same thing. And that the world at large, who could take what this lying man says, and turn it into a witchhunt against what could very well be the best athlete of his or any generation, a sure-fire Hall of Famer, and a fantastic man in general as well. I am ashamed to consider myself an American on days like this. It is only to the credit of Congress that they took time out from their important work for America and the world to give Roger a chance to set his record straight, as well as my record.

I stand by my statement that Roger read to Congress. I read the same article about HGH that McNamee did, and I took the shot when Roger wasn’t home, and Roger said that I should “back off” after that. And I did, and I thank Roger for that. If I had to do it all over again, I wouldn’t have taken that short, or I would have taken the shot, but with Roger there to stop me from taking it, because if Roger knew I was taking the shot the moment I was taking the shot, he would have kept me from knowingly taking the shot. I have seen what HGH has done to baseball, and this country, and I don’t want that to happen to me, especially now that I know more, because knowing is half the battle.

And I don’t want this to happen to my Roger, either. My husband’s life is all about baseball. He trains non-stop every single day. He named our children after strikeouts with the first letters of their names. He sleeps in his jock strap that he only washes once a year. It’s all he ever talks about. Baseball, I mean, not his jock strap. That commercial we did, about him playing golf and then getting a call to come back to baseball and me telling him to not play, is a lot like our life, except usually he gets those calls while at home, usually during dinner, and we fight about it in person because he always forgets about his steak when he gets one of those calls, and then he makes it up to me in lots of special ways that only a husband and wife can understand, and then I reheat his dinner. That is what love is all about, not romance and fancy dinners and frilly lingerie. It’s about fights, and forgiveness, and lots of reheated steak.

As Tammy Wynette once sang, you should stand by your man, no matter how often he breaks your heart or disappoints his children or even lies about what he’s going to do every single year so many times you could set a watch to it. For me, my man is called The Rocket, and that’s why I stand by him. I stood by him when he lost all those important games. I stood by him when that awful man in Boston called him fat and washed-up. I even stood by him when he decided to go to Canada. If you can’t stand by your man through the toughest of times, then you shouldn’t be allowed to stand at all, for anything. And if baseball and baseball fans and anyone else can’t stand by my man, then the same goes for them as well, but double.

On this day of Valentine’s, which is also ironically the day pitchers and catchers report for Spring Training, but don’t hold your breath about any reports, we should be celebrating our love for baseball, as well as our lover’s love of baseball. It should not be celebrating by running my husband through the coals of the media’s obsession with past use of drugs that may or may not improve performance when these drugs weren’t even tested for back when people were using them and if they’re caught now using the drugs they’re punished by baseball anyway, so who cares, even if he used them, which he didn’t? All I know is:

1) My husband is innocent, because he says so.
2) I love my husband.

And that is all that matters in this world. And that’s all that should matter to you. Thanks!

Debbie Clemens’ favorite TV show is Ghost Whisperer.

A Word From Our Editor: An Apology To A Famous Person

Hello, baseball fans, from me, Ward York! Welcome back to another upcoming season of Major League Baseball, and another year of semi-regular commentary and opinion from your favorite non-profit place for baseball writing that I edit, Yard Work Dot Org (not to be confused with any other Yard Works that you might find while Googling – ask for the original)! We have some fantastic plans for this year, some of which (or whom) you might actually see come to fruition before your very eyes, as well as ours! But before catchers and pitchers lace them up somewhere within the contiguous United States at an MLB-club-owned facility prior to an official MLB Spring Training game, there is some business that needs attending to.

Long-time readers (and even some random Googlers) know that, in the past, we have criticized, or “taken aim at,” a well-known weblog called FireJoeMorgan Dot Com. (Here is the most blatant example of us scoring lots of points and feeling really good about it.) Ironically enough, that aforementioned weblog is also famous for “taking aim at,” or “pinching a loaf on the chest of,” certain things – in their case, they focus on sports punditry that they believe is full of lies, nonsense, and nonsensical untruths, among other things. While Yard Work Dot Org was originally pleased that the aims of this site were somewhat true and noble, we took umbrage at the way in which they shot their mouths off. In short, we often felt they were using the same sort of fish-in-barrel thug-like tactics that their targets often used, and we took personal offence to that, and we hope that came through in our insults, both in public and private. (Officially, I am not at liberty to discuss whether our attacks on their attacks had anything at all to do with the fact that their web traffic, and public profile, totally dwarfs that of Yard Work Dot Org, despite smart people knowing full well that we are totally awesome and deserve to get interviewed in Sports Illustrated and on various radio shows and do other fame-type things.)

In the last few days, however, new information has come to light that has caused us to rethink our position. According to sporadically reputable websites, the FireJoeMorgan poster known as “Ken Tremendous” is actually a real person called Michael Schur, a writer for the famous TV show The Office. Supposedly, the other writers for the site are famous as well, but I’ve never heard of them, so I’m suspicious of their supposed fame. Everyone here at Yard Work Dot Org is a big fan of the show (especially the ones where the Jim character looks at the camera, and the Dwight character says something psychotic and Amish), and we were shocked to learn that a writer that we thought wasn’t good was actually a writer on a show that is actually good. Suffice it to say that if we knew that “Ken Tremendous” was a famous writer for a funny TV show that actually makes people laugh, we would have taken that into account in our assessment of how great and beyond awesome the writer (and his site) actually are.

To that end, we would like to offer our sincerest apologies for saying bad things about Mr. Schur and anything he’s had part in doing in regards to riding Mike Celizic like a rented mule with a hacksaw in his or her back. And please be assured that, unlike other people whose opinions are changing in light of this news about you being famous, we are totally sincere in our newfound appreciation for your talent and fame, and we (meaning I) would like you to know that if there’s anything you’d like us (meaning me) to do in exchange for, say, a romantic dinner with the Angela character in real life, let me (meaning Ward York) know well in advance so I can buy a discount plane ticket and get my back waxed. Also, if you have any contact with any of the people that work at your, or any, television network, I could help you out in exchange for that as well – I have a proposal for a new Manimal series (starring Timothy Dalton and that pretty girl from Grey’s Anatomy) that is sure to, as they say in Hollywood, “impress lots of people with its verisimilitude.” I know there’s some sort of strike going on between the networks and writers, but don’t worry – I have no problem crossing the picket lines and being a “scab,” so please make sure to mention this when you talk to someone at the networks.

Anyway, that’s all for now, dear readers of Yard Work Dot Org. There’s plenty coming up for baseball in the next few months, including the regular season, and then the playoffs, so stay tuned for that, and for anything else that might happen as well. See you in the boxscore! And at the NBC Studio security gate!

Hollerin’ Hank Says: Shut Up About The Steroids!

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First of all, when I say “shut up,” that goes for everyone. George Mitchell: shut up about your go-nowhere 22-month crusade that turned up nothing more than a few signed checks and Josias Manzanillo. You did absolutely nothing that a high school graduate with internet access couldn’t do in about 1/22nd the time. ESPN: shut up about the “tragedy” that this report brings – this isn’t Hiroshima or Little Big Horn or either one of the towers. Hell, this isn’t even Joe Theismann getting his leg broken. Carl Pavano popping a hemorrhoid has more emotional juice behind it than this pooch-screw. Listening to Buster Olney last week on ESPN Radio claim Wally Joyner was peer-pressured into taking steroids to get his power back almost made me spit up my venti double-mocha caramel latte! (For the record, I was only listening because my idiot brother Hal thinks Mike & Mike are actually funny. It’s pretty clear which of us got our dad’s brains, that’s for sure).

Hell, the whole sports media should shut up. Some guys couldn’t wait to throw former Yankee great Roger Clemens under the magical mystery steroid bus. I’m pretty sure Yahoo!’s Dan Wetzel ended up with his stomach in his balls trying to post the first “CLEMENS IS EVIL” column, while other clowns tripped up over each other’s pill-powered boners trying to one-up the overblown rhetoric. All I know is: all you uptight moral Bible-thumpers riding Bonds’ acne-scarred back for the past 3 years in your columns better shit or get off the pot if you’re going to continue to claim that steroid users deserves an asterisk and a Hall of Fame snub and all that garbage.

And you know who needs to shut up the most? The fans! Yeah, that’s right, the fans, with their “oh, we want the game to be PURE and FREE OF DRUGS!” Here’s a newsflash for the fans, the owners, the executives, and anyone else that’s had their head up their ass for the past, oh, 100 years: cheating and baseball know each other in a very Biblical manner. It’s called “gaining a competitive advantage.” If you get caught, you should get punished, but if you can get away with it, who the hell cares?

I don’t care if current Yankee great Andy Pettite shoots up with heroin before every start, stabs stray puppies on off days, and has sex with a Tom Brady Fathead – if he can get us into the 7th every 5th day with a lead, I’m happy, as long as he doesn’t get caught! If 300-game-winner Roger Clemens wants to make yet another June comeback, I’ll gladly welcome him back into the fold if he promises to not pitch like grass-filled dogshit. And if that means more needles in the ass, then I’ll pump him up my damn self! And if you seriously think that jug-eared bow-legged lump Posada isn’t doing something illegal to hit over .300 as a catcher, then I will personally pay for your CAT scan and a Hooked on Phonics CD set. We won with guys on the juice, we won with guys on greenies, and we won with guys shoveling fifteen-foot snowdrifts up their nose. The key thing is WE WON. Wake me when MLB turns into a whiny two-faced bitch like the NCAA, and actually asks for their hardware back.

Winning is never pretty, but fans want to believe that it’s all done with hard work and compassion for your fellow man and being some sort of gutty Jeterian myth of a man. The fact is that winning takes needles in the ass, arms, between the toes, under the eyeball, and anywhere else you want them shoved. It takes knowing that sometimes you need more than what’s under your skin and in your heart to get that winning run home, especially given how much cash these guys get nowadays. Baseball players that just make it to the major leagues get at least a couple hundred THOUSAND dollars just for dressing up & sitting on the pine next to the batrack – they’d better do what they can to earn their pay. And is there really a difference between scuffing a baseball with a beltbuckle and using a little chemstry? The drive behind both acts is the same – the desire to win.

And don’t give me that “oh, these STEROIDS meant that us CLEAN players couldn’t break into the bigs” nonsense. Save it for one of Rosenthal’s ill-informed rumor columns. You want to know why Wally Joyner lost his job? Because he was a first baseball that couldn’t hit 20 HRs a year without a juiced ball, and spent more time on the DL than in the batter’s box. Get in line behind Yankee would-be-great Nick Johnson and about a thousand more talented players, Wallace. And if you, Mr. Joyner, are losing your chance at the bigs to world beaters like Chris Donnells and Mark Carreon, then get your technical school degree already, because you had no shot to begin with. The fact that those chumps needed PEDs to do as poorly as they did to stick around as briefly as they did says more about the quality of their competition than the quality of their character.

So, yeah, Bud Selig should be proud. He spent millions of dollars on a report that didn’t prove anything that wasn’t already known, and also keeps the door open for more bias and speculation to fuel more idiot witch-hunts. You took a growing and thriving sport at the height of its earning powers, and turned it into a crappy episode of The X-Files. And yes, I’m talking about the ones without Scully & Mulder. It takes a man of great and triumphant stupidity, Bud, to continually shit on a business that’s succeeding in spite of your efforts. You could dig up Bart Giamatti’s corpse, and even that dessicated sack of pretentious crap would know enough to just farm out the PED tests & focus on CURRENT offenders, instead of looking into supposed past abuses. Congratulations on giving the sub-moronic sports media more sub-moronic soundbytes to mull over. If you’ll excuse me, I’ll be over here, looking the other way when the HGH arrives in the clubhouse, & ordering extra cases of champagne for that next Yankee championship celebration. Stick that in your ass, baseball.

New York Yankees Senior Vice-President Hank Steinbrenner has an Agnostic Front tattoo on his left shoulder.

A (New) Nationals’ Day of Mourning

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Hello readers. This is former New York Met Lastings Milledge, coming to tell you his side of the story. In case you’re living under a rock with some terrorists, or you were out shaking what your momma gave you with some fine men or women that are the same age as you, Lastings was traded to the Washington Nationals for two guys that Lastings’ mentor and personal hero Rickey Henderson would call “chumps.” Now, he understands that Ryan Church can hit a little bit. But Lastings has seven years on the guy, and Church is always getting hurt. If he had a choice between an old man that can rake but gets hurt, or a young kid that can rake and isn’t hurt, you can guess who’d get chosen.

Brian Schneider was the other guy in the deal. He’s a catcher, and Lastings’ former GM Omar Minaya makes it sound like he was the key to the deal, since he’s now going to start for the Mets as their full-time catcher. That’s great for Schneider, but I thought the Mets already had a catcher when they traded for Johnny Estrada. Lastings isn’t sure how many catchers you can have on one team, but the Mets seem to have a lot, and it’s not too clear what they’re going to do with them all. Maybe one of them can play in the field in Lastings’ place. That could be the big plan.

To be honest, he was hoping to stay with the Mets a long, long time. Lastings liked New York, and he liked playing in front of New York fans. They know what’s going on, and even if they’re too loud or too dumb, their heart’s in the right place. Lastings has some problem with people in the New York press, because they don’t seem to realize that it’s OK for people to listen to hip-hop and wear certain things, and that doing these things doesn’t automatically make you a bad person or someone that likes to shoot people in hip-hop radio stations. But Lastings understands that old white people don’t like it when young non-white people live their lives without checking in with white people to find out what’s OK and what’s not OK.

What Lastings doesn’t understand is why no one on the Mets seemed to like him. Maybe he made some mistakes (which Lastings already apologized for, by the way), but young people make mistakes. Lastings is only 22. If everyone in the world was a perfect mature person at 22, then we would have socialized medicine, no traffic on the highways, perfect DirecTV reception 24/7, and a Fantastic Four movie that didn’t suck. But people make mistakes – that’s what makes them people.

Lastings doesn’t know what he did to get former manager Willie Randolph so upset that he had to ride the pine all the time while guys like Marlon Anderson and Shawn Green played a lot of games down the stretch. Maybe Willie is jealous of Lastings’ youth and contagious exuberance. Maybe Willie learned how to hate his own people from his former coach, well-known racist Joe Torre. Or maybe he’s just dumb. Lastings heard stories about how Willie would play Jose Reyes in the leadoff spot in spite of a bad OBP, or bat David Wright low in the order because he was too young to be a real RBI guy (whatever that means), or bunt with Carlos Beltran early in games in order to move a runner along. Lastings just chalked those stories up to a rookie manager’s mistakes. Like he said in the last paragraph, people make mistakes. Lastings bought a Young Jeezy CD and that Outkast album where Andre 3000 tries to front like Prince. It happens. But now, with hindsight and first-hand experience in mind, it looks to Lastings like Willie’s just as dumb as those cracker-ass crackers (pardon Lastings’ inflammatory racially-tinged language) Billy Wagner and Paul LoDuca.

What those two guys Wagner & LoDuca ever did to think they know what they’re talking about is beyond Lastings. All Wagner ever seemed to do was blow leads late in the season, and all LoDuca seemed to do was ground into double plays in front of Wright and Beltran. And that’s when LoDuca wasn’t hurt – when he was hurt, he was too busy getting shot down by college girls and flapping his lips about being a teammate to really be a teammate. Lastings wished that more old white ballplayers would just shut their damn mouths.

It’s the same in Los Angeles, where a bunch of cranky old white dudes are mouthing off because younger players – some of them black, by the way – are taking away their playing time. Lastings believes that you gotta earn your time on the field, even if you’re an old-timer with lots of pals on the team. And old white folk that have to stick a tube of Ben Gay up their ass to pull on their stirrups, or need a walker with wheels to go 1st-to-3rd on a hit to right-center, shouldn’t say word one about losing playing time.

But what does Lastings know? He is just a 22-year-old phenom that could have anchored a young and potentially dominant Mets lineup for the next five years. Instead, Lastings is just a 22-year-old phenom that will anchor a young and potentially dominant Nationals lineup for the next five years. Lastings is looking forward to watching Wily Mo Pena hit lots of towering fly balls deep into that river in Washington. Ryan Zimmerman is a stone cold pimp. If Elijah Dukes is as good as folks say, he’ll be the Bun B to Lastings’ Pimp C (RIP). And if they ever get any pitchers that aren’t straight-up garbage, the Nationals could run wild all over the National League. Maybe they don’t even need pitching – if a bunch of slugger dudes like Colorado can make it to the World Series, then it’s not a long shot that Lastings and company could do the very same thing next year, even if they don’t have their own personal dragon slayer.

Anyway, in the few hours since this trade happened, all those bad feelings are now water under that bridge. Lastings is moving on, and he is looking forward to hanging out with Agent Zero and Sheriff Gonna Getcha in the city that will come to know and love him, even if he has to share a locker room with that cradle-robbing Soprano-wannabe LoDuca. If that guy has the sense God gave a chicken nugget, he’ll keep his damn mouth shut whenever he gets near me. Just saying.

Finally, Lastings just wants to say that the 350 at-bats he wasted in New York, for a team that can’t tell a good player from an overrated pale-ass hustle chump, will be treasured memories. And when the Nationals come to visit Shea next year, and Lastings goes deep against that redneck know-nothing hick Wagner to take the lead in the top of the 9th, and that stupid ass apple pops out of that stupid ass hat, Lastings hopes some fans near the foul line will be ready for an enthusiastic and totally respectful high five in the bottom of the 9th. Lastings wishes you a very safe and very Merry Christmas! And a safe Jewish holiday!

The Physics of Baseball: Prof. Adair explains the Rockies Win Streak

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The baseball postseason is the most exciting time to be a fan of our great national pastime. Every pitch and every swing of the bat can potentially bring glory or ruin to an entire team of hard working ballplayers, to say nothing of the cardiac damage done to the hearts of the millions of fans that live or die with their every base knock, or with their every out. Tension and drama envelopes all, and as a consequence of the emotions running high, we must deal with the inevitable bouts of hyperbole.

While the Indians and Red Sox engaged themselves in an oddly anti-dramatic battle to see which team could pile up the most blowout wins in a ten day period, the hyperbole came forth faster than a highly viscous fluid in a cylindrical pipe flowing under high Reynolds Number conditions. According to these shrill hyperbolists, the venerable Sawks began the series as the clear class of the league, beating up on a naive young Indians squad that looked confused and overwhelmed by Big Game Beckett and his loyal mates. A few days later, even their most spirited fans had turned against them, all but congratulating the Indians on a series well-played and bemoaned the unquantifiable lack of “spirit” entrenched in the 2007 Red Sox in comparison to the 2004 version. And yet, only a few days later, once this same Boston club had soundly vanquished their opponents, they were once again toasted as the class of the league, in possession of an unflappable will to win. Unfortunately, unlike the aforementioned fluid dynamics model of critical turbulent flow in pipes, it is not possible to design a rigorous model to explain the source of such fantastical hyperbole. Its explanation will therefore go unsolved for yet another postseason.

The same cannot be said for the recent on-field performance of the Colorado Rockies. Their spectacular hot streak has seen them win 21 of 22 games, vaulting themselves from an afterthought in the NL Wild Card race to the cusp of scaling the mountain and being crowned world baseball champions. Their streak has been described as “astounding”, “improbable”, and “historic”, so far beyond the realm of rational comprehension that it practically defies physics. This is where I, dear reader, must step in. Outcomes in baseball are governed by nothing more than gravity and Newton’s Laws of Motion. Nothing, not even Jessica Alba’s breasts, can defy gravity (the proof is left as an exercise for the reader … hint: Serway’s elementary text “Physics for Scientists and Engineers”, plus a wisely worded GIS should suffice as reference material). It is certain that the Colorado Rockies, thin air or not, cannot defy physics either.

Let us begin with a simple, intuitive model. Consider a game between two baseball teams X and Y. If they are perfectly evenly matched in terms of talent and ability, then the chances of victory for either club is 50%. We can trivially state that

lim n->inf., P_{v} ^{X} (n/2) = P_{v} ^{Y} (n/2) = 0.5.       (1)

For the more linguistically inclined, this means that if X and Y play each other many, many, many, many, many, many, many, many, many, many, many, many, many, many times in a row, then chances are that each club wins half of the games. However, what are the chances that X beats Y in 21 out of 22 games? The chances of winning two straight games is (0.5)^2 = 0.25, and the chances of winning three straight games is (0.5)^3 = 0.125, etc. The chances of winning 21 of 22 games is in the neighborhood of (0.5)^21 = 4.77E(-7), so if X represents the Rockies and Y represents their opponents, then the chances of reeling off such a streak, P(S), are 1 in 2 097 000.

This is obviously absurd. Einstein famously stated that God does not play dice, and while the Rockies may be playing like Gods, and play in a stadium that is situated closer to God than the stadia of other baseball clubs, they are most certainly not gods. The chances of Matt Holliday and company making good on a one in two million dice roll is even less than the chances that I will win the grand prize on a future season of “Dancing With the Stars”, that is to say, the chances of this happening are virtually zero.

Therefore, this simple, but illogical model needs refining. The Rockies enjoyed a sizable home field advantage this year. They played .622 ball at Coors Field, but just .481 on the road. We can approximate 0.481 ~ 0.500 with less than 4% uncertainty, but the Rockies deserve credit for their greater win probability in their home field. Taking half of their games to be home games during the streak, we recalculate

P(S) = (0.5)^10 * (0.622)^11 = 5.26E(-6),       (2)

or a 1 in 190 000 chance. This is still no better than the chances of turning on your TV and seeing me performing the tango with laser-like precision, but it is an improvement over the previous calculation.

But fear not, physics enthusiasts, for there is more! According to the Denver-area humidor equation, we have

B = [E^(2)]*R,       (3)

where B is the correction factor, R, is the height of Coors field above sea level, and E is the relative mass index of the humidor baseballs compared to non-humidor ones. Stated as such, B represents an extra win probability factor for the Rockies due to their familiarity (relative to the rest of the National League) in hitting the specially treated baseballs in their home park, as well as the the regular baseball in other parks. Taking care to use the Czochralski system of units in the calculations, we obtain B = 1.55, and thus, via substitution of Equation (3) into Equation (2), we find

P(S) = (0.5)^10 * (0.622)^11 * B^21 = 0.052.       (4)

Then there is the matter of the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are, simply put, a poor approximation for an evenly matched team Y in the model. This is a team that was outscored by its opponents this season. Their best hitter is cannot prevent himself from performing somersaults on throws to home plate, and their second-best hitter is a pitcher. A Rockies sweep was all but assured from the outset. We may neglect the season-ending series between the two, but it is reasonable to assign the Rockies a unity probability of winning the NLCS games. This removes two home games and two road games from the equation for P(S), and replaces them with a win probability ~ 1. Finally, amending Equation (4) gives us

P(S) = (0.5)^8 * (0.622)^9 * B^21 *(1)^4 = 0.54.       (5)

This final result in Equation (5) conclusively demonstrates that the chances of the Rockies winning 21 of 22 games were actually fairly reasonable, around 54%. Their run was not improbable at all, but was in fact quite probable. Once again, the scientific method has directed us toward the underlying physics behind the problem, and has shown us how to filter out the crap spewed at us by the sports media, beer-chugging lunatics at your local pub, and Tim McCarver. As for the World Series, I will refrain from making predictions. I prefer not to ponder my equations during the next week and will enjoy the games just like the common fan would. Please continue rooting for your favorite team, be they the Red Sox or the Rockies, and for goodness sake please join me, your humble professor, in rooting for the still-sultry Jane Seymour on season five of “Dancing With the Stars”. Homina homina!

Gilbertology Volume 0

the gil

Hey there people, it’s your boy Gilbert “Agent Zero” Arenas. Everybody thinks of me as just an All-Star basketball player and world-class blogger, and frankly I don’t blame people for that. But I am also a big fan of other sports. You probably already know about my Halo team Final Boss and my interest in training with DC United — but did you know that I’m also a huge football fan? Well, I am; football is almost as cool as basketball. Maybe someday, after my NBA career is through, I’ll go try out for the Redskins…. Well, maybe not. But maybe. With me, you never know!

Anyway, here are my picks for this weekend’s football games. Remember, kids, you can trust your Uncle Gil.

St. Louis 0, Dallas 42

I used to root for the Rams when they were in L.A., but I didn’t want any part of them once they moved to St. Louis. A lot of you are probably too young to even remember that there was ever any football in L.A., but I’m kind of like a historian. Plus they had Eric Dickerson, who was the awesomest running back ever. Everyone wants to talk about Stephen Jackson, but he has been pretty horrible this year, and now he’s injured. Without him, I don’t think the Rams can score at all. On the other hand, Dallas has T.O., who is my close personal friend, and Tony Romo, who I hung out with at a Spoon concert a few months ago. So the Cowboys are definitely going to win by a lot.

CLEVELAND 51, Baltimore 50

Some people want to talk about Baltimore’s defense and how great it is. We hear a lot about that in my area. But come on, outside of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed they really aren’t much of a thing. I’m more about Air McNair, who is on the comeback trail after no one believed in him. But if you don’t think my guy Jamal Lewis doesn’t want some payback then you have another think coming. The Browns have already put up 51 once, so watch ’em do it again.

Chicago 21, DETROIT 30

I’m sorry, getting rid of Rex Grossman was the wrong thing to do. I don’t know why, because he sucks. But come on, he’s the leader of the team, you just want to bench him to make your fans feel better or something? If Brian Griese is so great, how come he’s never been able to hold on to a starting job anywhere he’s ever been? Man, I should have been a quarterback. Anyway, Detroit is going to ring up 30 straight points on Chicago and then Griese will throw three touchdown passes in garbage time and everyone will be all like “HOORAY SAVIOR” but come on, you know that ain’t no thing.

BUFFALO 39, New York Jets 2

Can a football score even be 39-2? Well, that’s what I’m predicting here. I have family in western New York state, and those dudes are crazy up there with all the snow and it’s all bleak there like back in caveman times and stuff. Hey, did you see that they’re doing a show about those caveman dudes from the Geico commercials? Man, that’s gonna be one great show — those cavemen always crack me up. They’re so emo about everything! Furthermore, I really don’t like the Jets for some reason. Sorry, that’s how I see it.

ATLANTA 44, Houston 37

Come on, Atlanta can’t go all year losing every single game. And Houston is missing about half its team. This is gonna be a boring game, so now is a great time for me to mention my new shoe, the GilIIZero. Doesn’t that look like a great shoe? I’m rolling out a different design and color scheme in every single city in America, most of which I must admit I haven’t even really seen yet. I think my Atlanta shoe comes with a playable sound card of an unreleased OutKast track, and my Houston shoe has chaser lights and my name on it in old-fashioned English lettering like it was a Mexican guy’s car, in honor of my chico de casa Chingo Bling. So there’s that.

GREEN BAY 60, Minnesota 6

No question about this one, it’s my Agent Zero Iron Cast Stone Cold Lock of the Week. Put your money on Brett Favre, because he’s a gangster, and because he was in “There’s Something About Mary,” which was a funny movie for real. Anyone in Minnesota ever in a movie? Uh, no. This is going to be a long year in Minneapolis, because of the Twins blowing it and because the Timberwolves have just traded away the only good player they’ll ever have. Do they have a hockey team anymore? If so, they’re gonna suck too.

MIAMI 62, Oakland 51

As you know, I got kinda famous for yelling “Hibachi!” after draining my threes last year. Because of this, I have a special exclusive deal with Benihana, where I can pretty much eat for free there any time I want. The Benihana on Miami Beach is one of the best in the whole world, and Yasushi Fujita always hooks me up proper when I go there. But Oaktown doesn’t even HAVE a Benihana — you have to go all the way to Concord or to Frisco to get all smoothed out with yummy sliced-up Japanese food. So I gotta go with that, out of brand loyalty. Ronnie Brown will score every single touchdown and three two-point conversions.

SAN FRANCISCO 49, Seattle like 40 or something

Wouldn’t it be amazing if the 49ers scored 49 points? Come on, admit it, that would be dopeness personified. I don’t really think they will score that many but I’m rooting for it so maybe by predicting it I will make it happen. I like Seattle because of their logo, and if Matt Hasselbeck decided to give me a jersey that would be cool, but Shaun Alexander is not exactly as good as he used to be and their coach is, excuse me for saying it, a pretty bad coach.

Tampa Bay 10, CAROLINA 55

Yeah, that’s right, Panthers are on the prowl. Doesn’t matter who they have at QB. You know why? Julius Peppers, is why. He’s got great length, a tremendous amount of upside, and dude can ball, straight up. I don’t know what position he plays, probably defense or something. But seriously, we could use him on the Wizz, cause our big guys keep beating each other up and then whining about each other and then getting hurt or writing poetry or something. With Julius Peppers in the middle, we’d be NBA champs. Hey, throw Steve Smith in there too, he has ups for days. We’re talking dynasty here — seriously, who else do we have on our team? I have to go look at our roster, brb.

San Diego 68, KANSAS CITY 74

Now this will be a fun game, MY kind of football. None of this punting stuff. Actually, I’m a real good punter, I should totally do that. Remember Punt Pass & Kick? Man, I loved that stuff. I was completely on the path to a national championship in that as a kid. Then my dad broke salty on me about my commitment to basketball, and we had this big yelling fight, and we played HORSE for it, and he won because he cheated. So I guess it just wasn’t meant to be. Still, man, I’d love to get in the game and go all Reggie Roby on someone’s ass. But not in this game. No punts here, just a whole lot of touchdowns, field goals, laterals, statue of liberty plays, hidden ball tricks, et cetera. It’s gonna be real street.

INDIANAPOLIS 82, Denver 7

Honestly, until I looked it up, I forgot the Colts won the Super Bowl last year. I mean, yeah, I knew it, I was there, I won $25,000 on the game. (Oops! Just kidding, Mr. Stern.) But then I forgot, because this is the most boring Super Bowl winner in history. They’re crazy efficient, just grind it out and put points on the board. Coach Tony D. is great on defense, even if he is a little obseski about other stuff I can’t really get with. So they’re gonna go apefire all over Denver, and no one will care, and maybe they’ll win another Super Bowl and still no one will care. No style, no flair. Glad I’m a baller.

PITTSBURGH 82, Arizona 7

Whoa, same score! What a coincidence…or is it? Only Agent Zero knows for sure. Mwah hah hah hah hah!

NY Giants 73, PHILADELPHIA 106

Blowout for my boy Donovan. Hey, a lot of people got all upset about those uniforms last week, mostly (no offense) white guys. But I thought they were all that and a can of Pringles. Great color scheme, nice detailing, very smooth. I wish all teams would wear different uniforms every single week. That’s pretty much what happens with us on the Wizz. Gold, black, white, all combinations thereof, we never know what we’re wearing until we get on the court. All I know is that I get to wear the big zero on my back.
Cincinnati 13, NEW ENGLAND 226

You know who the real pimps are? White dudes from Boston. Oh, and black guys from West Virginia. It’s all over.

Gilbert Arenas plays basketball for the Washington Wizards.

Thursday Afternoon Quarterback

king

Here’s what I know about the NFL after three great action-packed weeks….

ITEM: This Favre kid? Up in the Bay of Greenness? He’s gonna work out okay after all. I was headed up to Historic Lambeau Field (gotta include the “Historic” in there, dontcha kinda gotta?) to see the game, but I missed my plane, thanks to a late driver and an insanely long line at my local Starbuck’s Coffee establishment. The airport was nuts with delays and cancellations, the actual flight up to Green Bay was a cattle car, and by the time I finally landed there was nothing I could do except watch the game on TV at the airport. But one heck of a game from the 37-years-young Favre, who tossed his NFL-record-tying 420th touchdown pass. Anyone wanna take me up on a bet that he throws at least one more touchdown? Anyone? Bueller?

ITEM: I highly recommend the TD Brat at the Austin Straubel International Airport, and the whole gang at Curly’s Sports Bar there. I know that wolfing down a bratwurst piled high with cheese and condiments doesn’t exactly fit in with anyone’s diet plans…but two or three of those babies sure help take the edge off when you’ve been in Airport Lambeau — oops, I mean Limbo. I would especially like to thank my waitress, the lovely Jessica Phu, who helped keep the cold ones coming.

ITEM: Did you know that Green Bay is home to an increasingly large Hmong population? Hmong, it turns out, are one of the many people of Southeast Asia who have found a happy home right here in the U.S.A. I learned all this from Jessica, who out of the goodness of her heart stayed to talk with me after the game. More fun facts about the Hmong people? Well, they do not really have a traditional written language, because they communicate primarily through art and the oral tradition. Interesting, huh? After the game, I hoped to learn more about this “oral tradition” thing by accepting Jessica’s invitation to visit her at her apartment. What I learned there was…well, let’s get back to football, shall we?

ITEM: LaDanian Tomlinson is a whiner and a baby, but really it looked like there was nothing he could do against Nick Barnett and the swarming green horde that is the Packers’ defense. Something’s going on in Green Bay…and I think I like it.

ITEM: Turns out that Donovan McNabb ain’t too shabby either, huh? Boy, our Walter Mercado really blew it on that one. Of course, it would have helped if Detroit had actually shown up to the game. Which they didn’t. I mean, they were there, but they weren’t really there, if you catch my drift. What I’m saying is, they played very poorly. Probably why they lost.

ITEM: Watching the New England / Buffalo game on SportsCenter (Jessica — or rather her family, they all live together in a charmingly cramped bungalow near the lake — has a great Panasonic large-screen TV), it was clear that the Patriots are the best team in the NFL. I’m not really sure why anyone else even tries. They will definitely go to the Super Bowl this year and most likely win the whole thing, unless there is some kind of Belichek Meltdown Situation. Which could happen. Anyone remember a little video incident thingie? Not after the Patriots’ dismantling of the Bills, they don’t.

ITEM: Hmong people are very family oriented. Her great-grandmother, whose name I didn’t quite catch so I just called her Granny, was a charming, spritely lady with a penchant for country music and sweet-smelling cigars. Jessica’s younger brother Jimmy showed me some of his hottest breakdance moves, and her older brother, Heavy, had some of the most extensive tattoo work I’ve ever seen on a young man. Of course, there was a lot to work with — Heavy was only about 5’7″ but I’m pretty sure he can bench-press more than 350 pounds, and displayed a facility with at least three different kinds of mixed martial arts. He demonstrated these techniques after a slight misunderstanding about my intentions with Jessica, which I blame on a language gap and on my fourth Leinenkugel of the afternoon.

ITEM: You know who’s almost as helpful and cheery as the staff at Curly’s? The emergency room technicians at St. Vincent’s Hospital. Not only do they re-set one heck of a dislocated jawbone, they also brew pretty good coffee, even if it does have to be iced down so it can be sucked through a straw. Special shout-outs to Marge, LaHelen, and Indira!

Peter King is a senior editor at Sports Illustrated, and has written a lot of books.

Let the Astral Stars Be Your Guide to Week 3!

walter m

The universe is a very large place, and most of it is very cold. But when we look up, we do not look at the dark parts, do we, lovely friends? No, we do not. Instead, we look to the stars, those burning balls of gas that give us all life. That is why people turn to fabulous seers like me — I have been reading the stars since I was eleven years old, when they called me “Walter of Miracles” and I decided to grow up to be the Liberace of Puerto Rican astrologers.

This weekend, millions of Americans will pay attention to NFL football games. Why? What are they looking for? Will they be watching the play of the linemen, those burly bearded behemoths who are the dark matter of the universe? I think not, chickens. Neither will they be pointing out the coverage flaws of obscure third-year weak side linebackers or uninspired decisions by agéd bepaunchéd offensive coordinators. Who will all these hard-working Americans be watching? Why, the stars, of course: Quarterbacks! Running backs! Wide receivers! Sackers, thieves, the ones who kick!

So come with me now on a mystical voyage through the zodiac of the NFL. (Note: prognostications are for entertainment purposes only.)

Arizona vs. BALTIMORE: The league’s second-best-known Great Impregnator, a Taurus, is overdue for some cosmic payback. Justice will be served…in purple. (Magic numbers: 7, 20, 52; Sacred word: Interceptor.)

San Diego vs. GREEN BAY: The leader of the hosts is a Rabbit with Water rising, which goes well with his quarterback’s Rooster/Earth combination. Rivers cannot rise in the Bay. (Magic numbers: 4, 21, 10; Sacred word: Renaissance.)

MINNESOTA vs. Kansas City: No humans will be watching this contest, but perhaps the gods have set a little wager. Although the Red Runner will resurface, Scandinavia crashes the party. (Magic numbers: 27, 24, 28; Sacred word: Horde.)

Miami vs. NEW YORK JETS: The swampdwellers have no leadership and no bloodlust, but they have a secret weapon. Delphinidae, warriorless, must watch out for a former waterfowl. (Magic numbers: 11, 87, 54; Sacred word: Capitalize.)

DETROIT vs. Philadelphia: The embattled archer has feathered arrows left in his quiver, but watch for the Leos — led by a Pisces — to open up a can of soup-ernatural whoopass. (Magic numbers: 25, 11, 5; Sacred word: Throwback.)

SAN FRANCISCO vs. Pittsburgh: Rough day for the curtain, as a new wind blows from the west. There might not be any blood spilled, but there will be gore galore. (Magic numbers: 21, 27, 86; Sacred word: Snare.)

BUFFALO vs. New England: Karma is a goddess — a bitchy, bitchy goddess. She sneers at predictions, she abhors a cheat, and she gathers no moss. Zenophobes, prepare to be lynched. (Magic numbers: 85, 85, 85; Sacred word: Stand.)

TAMPA BAY vs. St. Louis: We were going to call this one for los Capricornios, but one last flip revealed the Two of Wands, so: boldness! I’m sorry, Mr. Jackson, this is for real. (Magic numbers: 20, 55, 21; Sacred word: Keelhaul.)

Indianapolis vs. HOUSTON: Thundering hooves echo in the minds and ears of most pundits…but the turtle holding up the world sings a different, defensive song. (Magic numbers: 90, 28, 87; Sacred word: Comeuppance.)

CLEVELAND vs. Oakland: Unexpectedly, everyone loves black and silver these days. But we learned last week that persimmon is just so much more autumnal…and prolific. (Magic numbers: 51-45, 17, 34; Sacred word: Feng shui.)

JACKSONVILLE vs. Denver: When in doubt, rely on the spirit avatars. Look for the slavering predators to feast on the majestic, yet stolid, herbivore. (Magic numbers: 9, 51, 6; Sacred word: Unpredictability.)

Cincinnati vs. SEATTLE: Every week, Walter gazes into the bloodshot eye of the universe, seeking answers and truth. But sometimes nothing can be divined, so Walter flips a coin. (Magic numbers: 3, 51, Ocho Cinco; Sacred word: Aerodynamic.)

NEW YORK GIANTS vs. Washington: They say los Gigantes are obnoxious, overhyped ladyboys commanded by a mad Captain Bligh, and they’re right. But my 20-sided die says they’re due. (Magic numbers: 72, 81, 82; Sacred word: Pigment.)

DALLAS vs. Chicago: The I Ching revealed Hexagram 54: 歸妹, “Converting the Maiden.” Saucy stuff for Sexy Rexy! Confidently, we call an upset in the field of soldiers. (Magic numbers: 9, 81, 23; Sacred word: “Damages.”)

Tennessee vs. NEW ORLEANS: Sainthood is not granted; it must be earned. Watch this game to see a young-ster feel the brees from a burning bush, and drop a deuce. (Magic numbers: 8/29/2005; Sacred word: FEMA.)

CAROLINA vs. Atlanta: Walter has Jake Delhomme on his fantasy football team, so that pasty m-f better come through. Plus, Walter is a dog lover, K9 4EVAH FALCONS NEVAH. (Magic numbers: 17, 90, 7; Sacred phrase: Don’t tase me, Breaux.)

Walter Mercado presents his horoscopos todos los dias on “Primer Impacto.” Dig it.

ClandestineSurveillanceGate: A Roundtable

Like everyone in the NFL blogosphere, we have our jockstrap all up in a bunch over this whole New-England-Patriots-cheating-for-many-years scandal. Well, we’re rebels around here, so we’re gonna avoid saying the same old tired crapola that all the other places are squeezing out like so much purple hair in the Fuzzy Pumper Barber Shop of the football punditry. (That’s right, we just dropped a Fisher Price reference. THAT’S HOW WE ROLL Y’ALL.)

Face it, we need some new perspective on this issue. Instead, we have assembled top experts to weigh in with their thoughts. Hang on, babies — it’s gonna be a bumpy column.

Bill Buchanan, former head of the CIA’s Counter Terrorist Unit, Los Angeles division

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We have a situation here…but it’s not a very serious one. If you had told me even a few months ago that the whole country would be mesmerized by a Patriot spying scandal, I would have been hunting down leaks like Mario and Luigi. Instead, we are apparently talking about a football team called the New England Patriots, and a low-level (albeit long-running) videotaping event. So let’s just take the threat level down a notch, here, can’t we?

Look, if I’ve learned anything from my career in CTU — which, judging from my track record, I really apparently haven’t, LOL — I’ve learned that all surveillance should be meticulously planned and use only the latest and best technology. It also never actually prevents any tragedy or embarrassing international incident. In this regard, Bill Belichek has failed — his team has actually done very well over the years. Because of the gap between this situation and my own personal experience, I must recuse myself from the conversation. I’m busy trying to get reinstated in the domestic federal hierarchy and save my crumbling marriage.

Carmelo Anthony, basketball player, Denver Nuggets

carmelo

Hey, it’s your boy Carm. I don’t know why I’m writing for this corny-ass website but my consultants say I have to raise my public profile and NBA.com is even cornier and Yardbarker won’t return my emails. :(

So my basic take on this is this: Mangina is a straight-up punk who got his bitch-ass beat and then flipped on his boy. (I’m not the only one who feels this way.) But I got in trouble the last time I said something like that — no one in Denver who can afford season tickets can handle the realness, big surprise. You know how hardcore I am; remember how I took on the entire Knicks team and stood my ground like a man that night in the Garden?

But I’m on this mission to increase my Q Score in middle America, so let me officially say that I condemn this horrible act of skullduggery, and I fully support Eric Mangini’s brave whistleblowing. It’s about time this kind of thing was removed from football, and all sports in general. I love fair play, freedom, and the U.S.A.

Creepy dude from “Peeping Tom”

peeps

Imagine… someone coming towards you… who wants to take video of your offensive schemes… regardless of the consequences. Doesn’t that sound like the scariest thing in the world?

Well, it would be if that man was working for Bill Belichek. He is the current “big daddy” of NFL coaches — and if Father chooses to tape us, aren’t we supposed to just lay back and enjoy it? After all, Father always knows best. On the other hand, the unblinking gaze of the videocamera always records us at our most vulnerable: when we are terrified, when we are weeping uncontrollably, when we are trying to implement a system to cover Donté Stallworth on a quick-out. Being photographed during these times can make a person unsettled, or even upset. Perhaps even a little bit angry.

So if Eric Mangini chose to react the way he did against the Father, with a blinding flash of red in his eye and a touch of hatred in his heart, I for one cannot condemn him. On the other hand, if Bill Belichek tried to gain a competitive advantage over another coach, is that not his job? Listen to the media messages out there, and the culture of football itself: Winning Isn’t Everything, It’s the Only Thing; Just Do It; Ayo Technology. If you think coaches aren’t influenced by the world around them, you are crazy. I would know.

But ultimately this is really not a football issue, but a philosophical one. After all, which football sites get more hits, the ones with serious analysis or those with girls on the front covers and no front covers on the girls? Actually, I don’t know the answer, but let’s assume the latter. Football makes us into voyeurs. We sit in the stadium, or more likely in our man-caves, watching other people’s lives. It is the bargain football strikes with us, although most commentators are too well-behaved to mention it. What we are talking about is not two coaches locked into a daddy/son cycle involving stolen images, deadly intent, and ill-fitting clothing. We are really talking about our own relationship with the media monster we have created.

We click on every upskirt shot link, knowing very well that we are giving away a little bit of our soul every time. We embrace the camera lens, staring into it longingly while is killing us.

Plus, the Patriots suck. Fuck those guys.